Dr Mohammad Abdollahi · Data Scientist & Operational Researcher

Forecasts that lead to better decisions about what to order, what to charge and where to deliver.

I build forecasting and optimisation systems that help organisations decide what to order, how to price and how to deliver when demand is uncertain. I have done this in peer-reviewed research on online grocery delivery, in a two-and-a-half-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with a UK e-commerce business, and in a public inventory-planning competition where I placed sixth of around 180 participants.

PhD Operational Research, University of Essex · MSc Artificial Intelligence (Distinction) · Peterborough, UK

From a demand forecast to an ordering decision An illustrative chart. Past weekly demand is drawn as a dark line. To its right, a teal forecast line continues the pattern with a widening uncertainty band. A marker three weeks into the forecast shows the supplier lead time, and a label reads "order now to cover this". The chart uses invented numbers. past demand forecast lead time Order now to cover forecast + uncertainty weeks → 100 50 0
Illustrative Invented numbers. The shape of the problem I work on: a forecast, its uncertainty, and the order it justifies.
  1. Forecast Demand across large product ranges, including sparse and intermittent series, evaluated with chronological backtests.
  2. Optimise Turn forecasts into ordering, pricing, slotting and routing decisions that respect lead times, capacity and cost.
  3. Deliver Reproducible Python and SQL systems whose outputs a buyer, planner or operations lead can act on.

Worked with · Published in · Ranked in

  • University of Essex PhD · Teaching
  • University of Kent KTP knowledge base
  • Priory Direct KTP company partner
  • EJOR Published 2023
  • Annals of OR Published 2026
  • VN2 6th place, 2025

Selected work

All work →

Industry delivery · KTP

From demand forecasts to procurement decisions

Designed and built a forecasting and procurement decision system covering 1,200+ products for a UK packaging e-commerce business, as KTP Associate with the University of Kent.

1,200+ products · Priory Direct / University of Kent · 2024–2026

Read the case study →

Public competition

VN2 Inventory Planning Challenge

Sixth of around 180 participants in the first public inventory-planning competition (2025). Six weekly ordering rounds, two-week lead time, scored on holding and shortage cost. Only 25 entries beat the organiser's benchmark.

6th place · independently scored

Organiser's results →

How I work

  1. Start from the decision. Who acts on the output, what they decide, and what it costs to be wrong in each direction. The model is chosen to serve that, not the other way round.
  2. Establish the baseline. A naive or seasonal-naive forecast, or the method already in use, has to be beaten before anything more complex earns its place.
  3. Evaluate honestly. Chronological splits, the horizon the business actually plans over, and error reported with its metric, cohort and period.
  4. Deliver something usable. A recommendation in the units people order in, with uncertainty visible and a clear route for human override.
2026

Efficient Forecast-Based Routing and Dynamic Time Window Management for Attended Home Deliveries

Mohammad Abdollahi, Xinan Yang and Michael Fairbank. Annals of Operations Research. Open access

Online grocers must decide which delivery slots to offer and at what price while orders are still arriving. This paper estimates the opportunity cost of each slot more accurately by routing forecast orders alongside confirmed ones, and introduces a dynamic slot-combination strategy that uses customers’ flexibility to make routes more efficient. Both ideas work within standard time-window routing systems and are evaluated on real data.

2023

Demand Management in Time-Slotted Last-Mile Delivery via Dynamic Routing with Forecast Orders

Mohammad Abdollahi, Xinan Yang, Moncef Ilies Nasri and Michael Fairbank. European Journal of Operational Research, 309(2), 704–718.

When a customer books a delivery slot, the retailer does not yet know which other orders will arrive. This paper forecasts the orders still to come and includes them in a dynamic routing model, so that slot availability and delivery charges reflect the true cost of each booking. The approach is tested on real-world attended-home-delivery data.

Teaching

I have taught and supported teaching in artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistics, programming and operational research at undergraduate and postgraduate level, at the University of Essex and earlier as a Lecturer in Computer Science. I combine concise explanation with worked examples and coding activities, and adapt for students from different disciplinary backgrounds.

Teaching experience and a sample exercise →

Currently

Completing a manuscript on global and demand-type-gated forecasting models from the KTP deployment, and revising a paper on opportunity-cost estimation for delivery pricing. Alongside this I am extending my engineering practice through an MLOps programme and studying agentic AI systems. learning in progress The agentic work is current development rather than established professional experience.

Full background →

Get in touch

If you are hiring for data science, forecasting or optimisation roles, exploring a research collaboration, or have a forecasting or inventory problem you would like a second opinion on, send me a short note.